Beef + Lamb New Zealand has released updated research on sheep and beef farm sales into forestry which underlines the need for action to address the amount of productive sheep and beef farmland being lost to forestry, particularly for carbon farming.
Orme & Associates were commissioned by B+LNZ to update the number of farms sold with the intention to plant forestry since their last report in August 2023, which covered the period 2017 to the end of 2022.
They found that since the last report sales for a further 51,291 hectares of sheep and beef farms going into forestry have been finalised.
As part of this, they significantly revised the confirmed sales for the 2022 year, from 35,508 hectares to 63,956 hectares (there is often a considerable lag between the time of sale and when the finalised sale is reported).
The revised figure far exceeds the 25,000 hectares per annum of exotic afforestation recommended by the Climate Change Commission for meeting New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
The current total amount of sheep and beef land purchased for conversion to forestry between 2017 and 30 June 2024 is 261,733 hectares. However, due to the lag identified above, the results for the 2023 year and the first two quarters of 2024 are still preliminary and these numbers are, along with the overall figure, likely to be higher.
B+LNZ Chair Kate Acland said the land-use change resulting from these sales will continue to have detrimental effects on the sheep and beef sector.
“There has already been a significant decline in stock numbers as a result of afforestation over the past few years. There are a couple of years between when a farm is sold and trees go in the ground, so based on the high 2022 farm sales numbers we know there is still a lot more planting coming, and that will further impact stock numbers.
“We estimate for every 100,000 hectares planted close to one million stock units are lost. While on one hand the decline in stock numbers means our sector has already dramatically reduced its overall greenhouse gas emissions and warming impact, the way it’s happening is simply not sustainable.”
Acland noted indications from the Government that it will address the land-use change issue. The Government’s latest quarterly plan included its intent to: Announce policy direction to limit farm conversions to forestry on high-quality land to protect food production.
“We welcome the Government’s intention to announce measures before Christmas and note that the National Party’s pre-election manifesto sets out a sensible platform to work from.
“We agree with the manifesto’s proposal to place a moratorium on whole-farm conversions on land classes 1-5, and would particularly welcome restrictions on land class 6, as that represents the highest proportion of land sold for conversion and it’s the main class of land used by sheep and beef farmers.
“Our big concern remains whole farms being sold for conversion to forestry, particularly for carbon farming. We urgently need limits on these whole-farm sales.
“I want to be very clear that B+LNZ is not anti-forestry and acknowledges there is a place for forests in meeting New Zealand’s climate change goals. We’re not saying there should be zero offsets available, we just want some limits around the conversion of whole farms into forestry for carbon credits.
“We are also hugely supportive of the integration of trees within farms, because this win-win option gives farmers the flexibility to maximise opportunities from their land and often provides additional benefits of shade and shelter.
“Any restrictions on forestry offsets should still allow farmers to enter some of their farm into the Emissions Trading Scheme regardless of land class. Farmers should be able to plant trees on the parts of their farms where it’s appropriate to plant, and to earn additional revenue from the ETS in the process.”
The Orme & Associates report found there had been a slowdown in whole-farm sales in 2023 and 2024, likely linked to ongoing policy uncertainty about the future role of forestry in the ETS and whether any restrictions may be placed on farm conversions being able to be entered into the ETS. It is not clear how long this slowdown will last.
However, Orme & Associates noted that the number of whole farms purchased for afforestation in 2023 was higher than those identified in 2017 (when the Government announced it would remove the cap on the carbon price), showing that ETS policy settings are still distorting the land market and driving farm sales.
Another finding of note in the report is that there have been changes in the parts of the country where land is being sold. There has been a significant slowdown in the Gisborne region due to the environmental impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle and the ongoing conversation happening in that region about the future of land use.
The North Island remains the main area where farm sales into forestry are happening, with an increase in Taranaki and Waikato.
ENDS
Download the land-use change from pastoral farming to large-scale forestry update by Orme & Associates (PDF, 2.2 MB)
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